Vietnam's Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2026: Key Influences and Challenges

As Vietnam's stock market approaches the final quarter of 2026, it is influenced by various economic factors, including growth rates, public investment, and expectations surrounding an upgrade in market status. Analysts suggest that the market's performance will largely depend on capital costs, particularly interest rates, which are pivotal in shaping investor sentiment.

According to Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of AZFin Vietnam, interest rates will be a decisive factor for the stock market in the coming months. Despite a GDP growth of 9.95% in Q3 2026, bringing the nine-month growth rate to 9.01%, the VN-Index has shown signs of adjustment. Phuc noted that macroeconomic data often reflects past conditions, while fluctuations in interest rates and international economic situations tend to impact investor psychology more immediately.

“Interest rates will be a decisive factor for the stock market in the coming months.”Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of AZFin Vietnam

Liquidity has also been a significant concern, with average trading value on the HoSE (Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange) dropping to approximately 16.4 trillion VND (around $690 million) per session in September. Foreign investors sold a net total of about 4.8 trillion VND (approximately $200 million) during this period, contributing to a total net selling of over 98.3 trillion VND ($4.1 billion) for the first nine months of the year. This limited capital flow has led Phuc to predict that the VN-Index is likely to remain stagnant in Q4 unless the State Bank of Vietnam improves liquidity and reduces interest rates.

Furthermore, analysts from VNDIRECT have observed that while many stocks have seen significant price reductions, lower prices do not necessarily equate to attractive investment opportunities due to persistently high capital costs. As of October 5, the market was trading at a P/E ratio of approximately 13.4 times projected earnings for 2027. However, this figure is heavily influenced by five stocks within the Vingroup ecosystem, which have a P/E ratio of around 71.6 times. Excluding these stocks, the P/E ratio for the rest of the market has decreased from about 14.1 times in October 2025 to 10.1 times in September 2026.

“If one-year interest rates were to decrease by one percentage point, the P/E ratio for stocks outside of Vingroup could rise by approximately 6%.”Nguyen The Minh, Director of Individual Client Analysis at Yuanta Securities

Nguyen The Minh, Director of Individual Client Analysis at Yuanta Securities, expressed concerns regarding the pressure from high interest rates, indicating that if one-year interest rates were to decrease by one percentage point, the P/E ratio for stocks outside of Vingroup could rise by approximately 6%. However, with domestic inflation and the current international interest rate landscape, a timely reduction in interest rates remains uncertain.

Despite these challenges, there are positive indicators for the market. TPS Securities has highlighted the potential for economic growth and public investment to support the market in Q4. Approximately 573.5 trillion VND (around $24 billion) in public investment remains to be disbursed in the last four months of the year. If this capital is deployed efficiently, it could stimulate economic growth and support the operations of related businesses.

“The market is expected to navigate through a phase of accumulation and differentiation in Q4 2026.”TPS Securities

Moreover, TPS estimates that passive capital inflows could exceed $2.2 billion following the completion of the market upgrade process. However, the actual scale and timing of these inflows will depend on the implementation progress, fund portfolio structures, and international market conditions. A relatively stable exchange rate is also seen as a favorable factor, although rising oil prices, inflation, and capital mobilization pressures may continue to exert upward pressure on interest rates.

In summary, the stock market in Vietnam is expected to navigate through a phase of accumulation and differentiation in Q4 2026. While the long-term outlook remains positive, the potential for a strong market rally is contingent upon improvements in liquidity and foreign capital inflows. Investors are advised to prioritize the quality of companies, profit outlooks, and resilience against high capital costs, remaining cautious in their investment decisions.