Thai Baht Forecast: KBANK Projects 33.00-33.80 THB/USD Amid Global Tensions

Kasikornbank (KBANK) has projected that the Thai baht will trade within the range of 33.00 to 33.80 THB per USD for the week of October 19-23, 2026. This forecast comes after the baht closed at 33.50 THB per USD on October 15, 2026.

Earlier in the week, the baht, along with most Asian currencies, depreciated due to rising tensions between the Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia, as well as attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. These events have heightened concerns over global energy supply stability, contributing to an increase in oil prices. Kasikornbank analysis noted that the demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset also surged, putting additional pressure on the baht.

“The demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset surged, putting additional pressure on the baht.”Kasikornbank analysis

However, the baht managed to recover later in the week, buoyed by foreign capital inflows into Thai bonds and a robust rebound in global gold prices. Kasikornbank analysis indicated that the situation in the Middle East, along with trends in oil and gold prices, will be critical factors to monitor in the coming days.

Important US economic data to watch includes housing starts, pending home sales for September, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, and weekly unemployment claims. Additionally, international economic indicators such as China's GDP for Q3 2026 and key industrial production figures will also be significant.

KBANK highlighted that the market will be attentive to inflation data from the UK and Japan, as well as preliminary PMI indices from Japan, the UK, and the Eurozone, which could influence major currency movements globally and, in turn, affect the baht.

“The situation in the Middle East, along with trends in oil and gold prices, will be critical factors to monitor in the coming days.”Kasikornbank analysis

In recent weeks, the baht has seen fluctuations, hitting a low of 33.75 THB per USD, the weakest level in over two months. This depreciation occurred despite rising global oil prices amid ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts. The dollar's strength has been supported by increasing US bond yields, which have reached their highest levels in over 24 years, reflecting concerns over inflation and expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Despite these challenges, the baht's recovery towards the end of the week was attributed to a decrease in global oil prices and easing tensions surrounding the Middle East conflict.